Canada Braces for Intense Wildfire Season as Drought and High Temperatures Persist

Drought conditions and above-normal temperatures are expected to contribute to abnormally intense wildfires across Canada throughout July and into August, according to the federal government. During a technical briefing, Michael Norton, Director General of the Northern Forestry Centre at Natural Resources Canada, highlighted that drought is a significant factor affecting all provinces and territories, with some regions experiencing intensifying conditions. The forecast of continued above-normal temperatures across most of the country suggests that many areas will witness above-average fire activity.

In July, the risk of wildfires is expected to increase due to warm and dry conditions spanning from British Columbia and Yukon to western Labrador. Although fire risk is predicted to slightly diminish in August, it will still extend from British Columbia to western Quebec.

To date, Canada has already experienced an unprecedented wildfire season, marked by numerous new records. On June 27, the country surpassed its historic record for the total area burned by wildfires in a single season. As of Thursday, approximately 8.8 million hectares (88,000 square kilometers) have been burned, nearly 11 times the 10-year average by this point in the season. The previous record of 7.6 million hectares (76,000 square kilometers) was set in 1989, with the 10-year average being 805,196 hectares (8,051.96 square kilometers).

The 2023 wildfire season has also witnessed the highest number of evacuations in the past four decades, with over 155,000 people compelled to leave their homes due to fire and smoke. Additionally, Canada has received assistance from a record number of countries, with 3,258 firefighters and staff from 11 nations across six continents providing support. The government continues to seek additional partners to combat the unprecedented flames.

The financial toll of this wildfire season is expected to be substantial, although the precise cost remains to be determined. The average annual cost of firefighting in Canada has been increasing and is now approaching $1 billion. Norton anticipates that the direct cost of suppressing wildfires this year will set a new record due to the scale of the ongoing activity and the significant time remaining in the fire season. However, quantifying the total economic and societal impact is challenging and is a subject of active research.

Norton highlighted the significant consequences of the 2016 Fort McMurray fires on the city, Canada’s energy sector, and public health. One study estimated the total cost of that single fire to be close to $10 billion. With the current wildfire situation, Canada remains vigilant as the country navigates through what is expected to be a record-breaking fire season, with approximately half of the season still ahead.