Conservative Don Stewart Wins Toronto-St. Paul’s Byelection, Shakes Liberal Stronghold

In a surprising turn of events, Conservative candidate Don Stewart has emerged victorious in the Toronto-St. Paul’s federal byelection, defeating Liberal candidate Leslie Church. This marks a significant upset for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, who have held the riding for over 30 years.

Stewart’s narrow win, by just 590 votes, was confirmed in the early hours of the morning, after a prolonged vote count due to a large number of independent candidates. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, expressing the gravity of the victory, called for a snap election, stating, “Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax election now.”

Throughout the night, Stewart trailed behind Church as poll workers meticulously counted ballots. Despite the initial setbacks, Stewart remained optimistic, urging his supporters, “Let’s not give it up.” Both candidates closed their campaign events hours before the final results were announced, as it became evident the vote count would extend into the early morning.

The final results shifted in favor of Stewart just before 4 a.m., marking a monumental win for the Conservatives, who haven’t secured a seat in Toronto since 2011. This outcome poses a significant challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose leadership may come under increased scrutiny following this defeat.

The loss is a considerable blow to the Liberals, who have been struggling in the polls. According to Conservative strategist Ginny Roth, the typical scenario where New Democrats siphon off left-wing votes did not apply here. Instead, the byelection saw a direct contest between Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP candidate securing only 11% of the vote.

Roth highlighted the potential implications of this result for future elections, noting, “It’s a really buoyant, exciting prospect for Conservatives who, I think, now can point to a very broad coalition of support.”

For Stewart, this was his first election. The financial executive has strong ties to the Conservative party, having served as an organizer and a former colleague of Jenni Byrne, a key advisor to Poilievre. The Toronto-St. Paul’s riding, located in midtown Toronto, is notable for its affluent areas, a high number of renters, and a significant Jewish community.

Former Liberal cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett, whose resignation led to this byelection, had consistently won the seat by substantial margins. However, the recent Liberal campaign faced challenges from an electorate dissatisfied with Trudeau amid rising inflation, housing costs, and increasing hate crimes, particularly following the Israel-Hamas conflict.

During the campaign, Conservatives made a concerted effort to appeal to the riding’s Jewish community, urging them to vote Conservative to signal their discontent with Trudeau’s response to rising antisemitism.

With a voter turnout of 43.5%, typical for a byelection, the results have set the stage for a dynamic political landscape in Canada. As Stewart prepares to take his seat in Parliament, the Conservatives are likely to capitalize on this momentum, while the Liberals face the task of regrouping and addressing the electorate’s growing concerns.