Bank of Canada Predicts Federal Government Will Miss Temporary Resident Reduction Target

The Bank of Canada has expressed doubts about the federal government’s ability to reduce the share of temporary residents in Canada’s population over the next three years, a goal announced by Immigration Minister Marc Miller in March.

Miller outlined Ottawa’s aim to lower the proportion of temporary residents from 6.2 percent to 5 percent by 2027. However, the Bank of Canada’s recent monetary policy report, released alongside an interest rate reduction announcement, suggests that this target may not be met. The report highlights that the share of non-permanent residents (NPRs) in Canada has increased since the goal was set.

“NPRs represented 6.8% of the population at the beginning of April — much higher than at the time of the March announcement — and the share is expected to continue rising over the near term,” the report states. “This suggests that it will take longer for planned policies to reduce NPR inflows to achieve the 5% target.”

The central bank’s report also mentions “considerable uncertainty” surrounding its projections, noting that details on most temporary resident permit programs’ adjustments are not expected until later this year. The bank indicates that its scenario will be revised as more information on program changes becomes available.

In response, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) confirmed that upcoming immigration plans will include measures to address the growing number of temporary residents. “The levels plan is expanding to include both temporary resident arrivals and permanent resident arrivals. It will be tabled in the fall following consultations with provincial and territorial counterparts and others as part of Canada’s annual levels planning,” the IRCC stated.

Miller met with provincial and territorial counterparts earlier this spring, and targets are expected to be finalized over the summer. This comes amid government efforts to manage the surge in temporary migration for work and study purposes.

Additionally, Miller announced plans to limit the number of international students by imposing a two-year cap on new admissions starting in January. Despite this, recent IRCC data shows an increase in student permits issued this year compared to 2023, which was already a record year. In the first five months of 2024, 216,620 student permits were approved, up from 200,505 in the same period in 2023.

However, the finalized cap on student visas wasn’t implemented until April, and the latest IRCC figures may not yet reflect these changes.