Liberals and Conservatives Maintain Seats in Four Federal Byelections

Preliminary results from Tuesday morning indicate that both the Liberal and Conservative parties have successfully defended their seats in four federal byelections, ensuring the status quo in the House of Commons.

As anticipated by pollsters, some of the races were closely contested compared to previous elections. Elections Canada still considers the results preliminary, but nearly 100 percent of votes have been counted in Portage-Lisgar and Oxford, and 100 percent have been counted in Winnipeg South Centre and Notre-Dame-de-Grace—Westmount.

Here’s a breakdown of the vote counts as of 8 a.m. Eastern in each riding:

Portage-Lisgar:
Conservative candidate Branden Leslie, a former Parliament Hill staffer, secured a decisive victory with almost 65 percent of the vote, comfortably leading over other contenders. People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier, who achieved his party’s best result in the riding during the 2021 federal election, fell short in his bid to regain a seat, receiving only 17.2 percent of the votes. While Bernier’s candidate earned nearly 22 percent of the vote in the last federal election, Conservative Candice Bergen emerged victorious with over half the vote share in 2021. Notably, she had announced her decision to step down after serving as interim party leader last fall. Observers were keen to see if the PPC could further impact the Conservatives’ right-wing support base.

Winnipeg South Centre:
Ben Carr ensured that Winnipeg South Centre remains a Liberal-held riding and also stays within the family of its late MP, Jim Carr. Following his father’s passing in December, Ben Carr, who serves as the vice-president of Indigenous Strategy Alliance consulting firm, won the election with 55.5 percent of the vote. Jim Carr, a former minister for natural resources and later international trade diversification, had been elected as an MP in 2015 and re-elected in 2019. Ben Carr has a background in teaching, coaching, and school administration, in addition to working as a senior Liberal government staffer.

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount:
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, another Liberal stronghold, will retain its red color with prominent Liberal figure Anna Gainey securing 50.8 percent of the vote. Gainey, a former party president, has also served as a policy adviser to ministers of national defense and veterans’ affairs. She will succeed former cabinet minister Marc Garneau, who announced his retirement in March.

Oxford:
The most closely contested byelection took place in Oxford, a rural Conservative stronghold in Ontario. Arpan Khanna, the Conservative candidate, emerged as the new member of Parliament with 43 percent of the vote. Khanna faced stiff competition from Liberal candidate David Hilderley, who secured 36.2 percent of the vote. As of Tuesday morning, 99.63 percent of the polls had reported their results. The byelection gained attention when Dave MacKenzie, who resigned from the seat in December, endorsed Hilderley. MacKenzie claimed that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and House Leader Andrew Scheer had interfered in the local association by influencing the nomination process and diminishing grassroots power. Khanna had supported Poilievre’s Ontario campaign during the leadership race and had previously run as a candidate for Scheer in a Brampton riding in 2019.